The purpose of the tool
When we imagine the future, we tend to think in linear steps.
The problem is the world doesn’t work this way. Change happens in a fractal pattern where billions of people and events react with each other to bounce the world into a new future.
This is a future our new businesses need to be ready to deliver for.
Incrementality is drags the momentum out of a new venture before we’ve begin. How do we always think against a backdrop of a world that changes faster than we can keep up?
We’ve started using a new canvas tool, Future Shock Canvas, to flow our thinking this way.
Using the Canvas
Download your own copy of the canvas here.
#1: Plant a seed
Consider demographic shifts, new scarcities, government policy changes, unexpected solutions that cause new problems, etc. Add these to the first column where there is space to imagine 3 different seeds.
e.g. Carbon tax placed on meat
#2: Extrapolate 5 years
Imagine some changes that might occur because of that initial seed.
e.g. Foodservice moves to plant-based alternatives.
#3: Extrapolate 10 years
How might the world respond to the scenarios at 5 years? How will people, companies, and governments make changes?
e.g. The farm gate price of soy goes up as the supply chain shifts from animal to human food.
#4: Summarise “The Pull”
Finally, summarise this trend as the title of a history book that someone might write 20 years later
e.g. “The decline of animal agriculture in the new carbon economy”.
We call this “The Pull” as it is a force that will drag our new company into existence.
Download the Venture Science Toolkit here.